Famous private equity personage painful batch brokerage researcher touts liquor “forever god”, industry personage: the market has the final say

2022-08-04 0 By

Baijiu has been A hot topic of A shares, for the future market in the end is bullish or bearish, the market opinion appeared larger differences.Recently, finance and economics big V “Fjitai Dong Baozhen” said: “RECENTLY I published the” liquor has entered the major cycle of decline inflection point “, the article in the investors gathering place published, immediately some people think my character is very bad, the level is lower, and some people want to report, think I can not make such an analysis.But soon my articles by liquor industry, many in white wine consulting experts and liquor, a think-tank, contact me to forward this article on one hand, on the other hand told me that they are highly agree that this is the current situation of the liquor industry, and they also told me that many of these securities research institute’s chief liquor, a think-tank, communication with them,The chief researcher of the broker that exchange had known liquor industry has appeared major turning point and decline, just they do not say, they do not say publicly they are still spreading liquor prosperity.Media reporters and researchers around the white wine, released two opposite judgment and analysis, the researchers stressed that channel inventory didn’t appear what problem, dealers to the winery is also very normal, so researchers say liquor or god forever, didn’t see what a researcher has talked about the terminal pin, which researchers also didn’t see go to a mall to the supermarket to research.Researchers are emphatically do not emphasize the moving pin, do not mention terminal sales, they just say that the dealer inventory is normal, normal payment.What percentage do the researchers say is being paid?What percentage?If you don’t enter the finance department of the winery, you can’t see all his financial statements, and you can’t know his payment progress accurately. When you know his payment progress, you are inside information. How did you get there?But our researchers are sworn to announce a payment progress, this payment progress ask these how did you come?”Silver Persimsimo financial reporters noted that fans of more than 600,000 big V “Fjitai Dong Baozhen” was certified as Lingtong Shengtai investment management chairman, Fjitai fund manager.He is known as a well-known investor who once invested heavily in Guizhou Maotai.On February 5, 2022, “Fujitai Dong Baozhen” published an article entitled “Baijiu has entered the Decline Inflection Point of the Major cycle”.”Fujitai Dong Baozhen” said in the article that combined with the third characteristic of the liquor industry cycle, “The price cycle of Moutai liquor is the price cycle and business cycle of the liquor industry, and the price of Moutai liquor is the most intuitive indicator to observe the liquor cycle”, it can be concluded that the liquor industry as a whole is at the highest price and the highest inventory.Therefore, the current price has evolved to a high drop inventory began to sell, the price drop and the stock to sell each other to strengthen, the decline cycle is coming!”The high growth in 2021 is the bubble induced by excessive price increase, and the negative growth in the fourth quarter is the practical evidence that the channel inventory has been filled. On the one hand, the price has exceeded the consumption capacity, and the channel inventory can no longer undertake, so the inevitable inflection point, which is the inevitable decision of the theory.In reality, liquor has negative growth in the fourth quarter.Almost all mainstream funds and capital market researcher is down to this, it said to be a blip, think that the cycle of fourth quarter quarterly negative growth and liquor has nothing to do, the liquor industry in their eyes even there is no cycle issues, they predict 2022 is growing by leaps and bounds, and never see this kind of growth.Capital markets are full of this view.My theory based on my own summary of baijiu high big cycle inflection point, few people believe.”Dong Baozhen said.Reporter noted, to liquor, there are empty views, there is no lack of views.Huatai Securities said in a research report released on February 7, overall, the 2022 Spring Festival demand toughness is strong, stable pin.Classification, high-end wine and national high-end wine rely on brand effect and strong regional allocation control ability to drive the price to remain firm, dynamic pin is more prosperous;The structural prosperity of other high-end wines is expected to be maintained due to slight differences in epidemic prevention and control in different regions, while some real estate wines that are less affected by the epidemic and enjoy consumption upgrading also have a good development trend.By region, the moving pins in east China are slightly better than those in south China and north China, and the overall inventory is healthy and healthy, with a good start in 2022 still expected.Huatai Securities is optimistic about the performance of liquor Spring Festival peak season, the trend towards a good background, it believes that the leading price is still expected to continue to grow rapidly.Citic Securities chief analyst Jiang Ya said in the research report, the year of the Tiger Spring Festival peak season liquor sales overall performance and structural differences are in line with expectations, famous wine to maintain consistent stability, Hui wine, Su wine is relatively eye-catching.It believes that a period of correction before the year has basically released the market for peak season marketing relatively negative sentiment, currently tracking the Spring Festival peak season liquor marketing performance remained stable, market sentiment is expected to gradually warm.Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao are still the first high-end liquor.”We can see from the current economic environment that the real estate market is in a slump, unemployment is rising, economic growth is slowing, and people’s spending power is slowing, so it’s difficult for baijiu consumption to survive alone,” Zhong Haibo, general manager of Guangdong Zhanfu Investment, told Yinshi Financial.The liquor sector peaked in 2020, largely reflecting strong consumption power for many years to come.In reality, the economic cycle and real spending power have turned, diverging stock price expectations.The market will have the final say.”Hu Chao, investment director of Shenzhen-based Bailun Fund, said: “There are two perspectives on the demand side of the liquor industry, one from the channel perspective and the other from the end consumption perspective.In my opinion, for high-end liquor brewing enterprises, the channel is the core control force of the demand side, and also the buffer of the demand cycle. The terminal demand must first impact the channel inventory, and finally can be transmitted to the liquor enterprises.However, for low-end liquor enterprises, there is no strong channel support similar to high-end liquor enterprises, and the weakening of terminal demand is more likely to bring direct impact on liquor enterprises.Therefore, I believe that the short-term weakening of terminal demand has a smaller impact on high-end liquor enterprises, and a greater negative impact on low-end liquor enterprises.In addition, as Treasury bond yields in European and US economies continue to rise, from the perspective of stock prices, high-end liquor valuations may still face downside risks.”